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9 of 9 matches with xG: 26 goals from 21.1 xG (1.24 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht 1–0 Heracles | 1.44–0.51 | 60% · 27% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Utrecht |
| Waalwijk 0–1 Fortuna Sittard | 0.28–0.67 | 14% · 46% · 40% | Close call, Fortuna Sittard won |
| PEC Zwolle 1–7 PSV Eindhoven | 0.34–3.95 | 1% · 4% · 95% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.67–1.23 | 48% · 24% · 28% | Win in line with xG for NEC Nijmegen |
| Excelsior 1–2 Vitesse | 1.53–1.19 | 45% · 25% · 30% | Won against the xG: Vitesse |
| Almere City FC 0–2 Feyenoord | 1.15–0.71 | 46% · 31% · 23% | Won against the xG: Feyenoord |
| Twente 3–0 Go Ahead Eagles | 1.46–0.53 | 60% · 26% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax | 0.51–0.93 | 19% · 36% · 44% | Won against the xG: AZ Alkmaar |
| FC Volendam 0–4 Heerenveen | 0.72–2.23 | 11% · 18% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.