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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 24.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles 0–1 PSV Eindhoven | 0.79–2.07 | 13% · 20% · 67% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Twente 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.61–0.10 | 77% · 21% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| Almere City FC 1–1 Utrecht | 0.30–1.35 | 8% · 28% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Utrecht had 64% |
| Waalwijk 3–1 Vitesse | 2.99–1.73 | 63% · 16% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
| AZ Alkmaar 4–0 Excelsior | 1.96–0.15 | 82% · 16% · 2% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| PEC Zwolle 1–1 FC Volendam | 2.62–0.91 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Draw against the xG: PEC Zwolle had 74% |
| Ajax 2–2 Fortuna Sittard | 2.61–1.48 | 62% · 18% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Ajax had 62% |
| NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Heerenveen | 0.72–0.78 | 30% · 37% · 33% | Close call, NEC Nijmegen won |
| Feyenoord 3–0 Heracles | 2.30–0.27 | 84% · 13% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.