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9 of 9 matches with xG: 33 goals from 28.7 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax 3–0 Almere City FC | 1.06–0.15 | 60% · 35% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Excelsior 4–0 Heracles | 3.35–0.41 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Excelsior |
| Twente 7–2 FC Volendam | 1.60–0.65 | 60% · 25% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| Utrecht 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.67–1.55 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Close call, Sparta Rotterdam won |
| Fortuna Sittard 1–1 PSV Eindhoven | 1.05–1.38 | 29% · 27% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Go Ahead Eagles 0–3 AZ Alkmaar | 0.94–2.32 | 14% · 18% · 68% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Feyenoord | 1.64–3.68 | 13% · 12% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Waalwijk 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 2.49–0.98 | 70% · 17% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Waalwijk had 70% |
| Heerenveen 1–3 Vitesse | 1.80–2.01 | 35% · 21% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Vitesse |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.