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9 of 9 matches with xG: 30 goals from 27.0 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle 0–1 Willem II | 1.56–0.61 | 60% · 25% · 14% | Won against the xG: Willem II |
| Heerenveen 1–0 PSV Eindhoven | 0.99–0.99 | 34% · 31% · 34% | Close call, Heerenveen won |
| Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Waalwijk | 3.05–1.79 | 63% · 16% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Fortuna Sittard |
| Feyenoord 5–2 Heracles | 3.43–1.08 | 81% · 11% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Utrecht 3–3 Go Ahead Eagles | 3.83–1.10 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Utrecht had 85% |
| Twente 2–0 Groningen | 1.15–0.41 | 55% · 32% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
| NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.90–1.32 | 51% · 22% · 27% | Draw against the xG: NEC Nijmegen had 51% |
| Ajax 3–0 Almere City FC | 1.56–0.07 | 77% · 22% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| NAC Breda 1–2 AZ Alkmaar | 0.73–1.45 | 19% · 27% · 54% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.