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9 of 9 matches with xG: 28 goals from 26.9 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 2.59–1.43 | 62% · 18% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Waalwijk had 62% |
| Go Ahead Eagles 2–1 NAC Breda | 2.58–1.21 | 67% · 17% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Go Ahead Eagles |
| Almere City FC 3–0 Heerenveen | 1.08–1.28 | 31% · 28% · 41% | Close call, Almere City FC won |
| AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Twente | 1.32–0.39 | 60% · 29% · 11% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 Ajax | 0.44–1.47 | 11% · 26% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Utrecht 2–5 Fortuna Sittard | 1.87–1.85 | 40% · 22% · 39% | Close call, Fortuna Sittard won |
| PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Feyenoord | 1.60–1.70 | 36% · 23% · 41% | Close call, PSV Eindhoven won |
| Willem II 4–1 NEC Nijmegen | 1.53–1.63 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Close call, Willem II won |
| Heracles 1–1 Groningen | 1.85–1.09 | 55% · 23% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Heracles had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.