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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 23.2 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles 1–1 Utrecht | 1.39–1.05 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| PSV Eindhoven 3–2 NAC Breda | 2.68–0.96 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Groningen 1–0 Heerenveen | 0.72–0.91 | 27% · 35% · 38% | Close call, Groningen won |
| Fortuna Sittard 1–4 PEC Zwolle | 1.39–1.99 | 27% · 22% · 51% | Win in line with xG for PEC Zwolle |
| Waalwijk 2–0 Willem II | 0.49–0.57 | 25% · 45% · 30% | Close call, Waalwijk won |
| AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.10–0.89 | 40% · 31% · 29% | Close call, Sparta Rotterdam won |
| Feyenoord 2–1 Almere City FC | 2.16–1.00 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Ajax 2–0 Go Ahead Eagles | 1.90–0.23 | 79% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Twente 2–0 NEC Nijmegen | 2.21–1.60 | 52% · 20% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Twente |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.