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9 of 9 matches with xG: 30 goals from 26.4 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles 4–2 Go Ahead Eagles | 2.43–1.03 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Heracles |
| PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Willem II | 1.26–0.71 | 50% · 30% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen | 2.19–0.84 | 68% · 19% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Groningen |
| Feyenoord 3–0 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.82–0.81 | 61% · 22% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Utrecht 0–1 Almere City FC | 1.02–0.93 | 37% · 31% · 32% | Close call, Almere City FC won |
| Fortuna Sittard 0–2 Ajax | 0.74–2.49 | 9% · 15% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Waalwijk 5–0 NAC Breda | 3.75–1.18 | 83% · 10% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
| AZ Alkmaar 2–0 PEC Zwolle | 1.51–0.69 | 57% · 26% · 17% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Heerenveen 3–3 Twente | 1.81–1.14 | 53% · 23% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Heerenveen had 53% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.