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9 of 9 matches with xG: 35 goals from 25.0 xG (1.40 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen 2–1 Almere City FC | 1.36–1.09 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
| Utrecht 4–0 Ajax | 0.83–0.75 | 35% · 36% · 30% | Close call, Utrecht won |
| NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Willem II | 2.83–0.56 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Draw against the xG: NEC Nijmegen had 84% |
| Heracles 1–4 Feyenoord | 1.28–2.40 | 19% · 19% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Feyenoord |
| Groningen 6–1 Waalwijk | 3.22–1.14 | 78% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Groningen |
| PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Fortuna Sittard | 2.99–0.29 | 90% · 8% · 2% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| NAC Breda 1–3 PEC Zwolle | 0.89–1.56 | 21% · 25% · 53% | Win in line with xG for PEC Zwolle |
| Go Ahead Eagles 0–3 AZ Alkmaar | 0.78–1.62 | 18% · 25% · 57% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 Twente | 0.69–0.69 | 31% · 39% · 31% | Close call, Twente won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.