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9 of 9 matches with xG: 26 goals from 23.0 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk 0–3 AZ Alkmaar | 0.11–2.88 | 1% · 7% · 93% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Almere City FC 1–1 Groningen | 1.10–0.56 | 49% · 33% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fortuna Sittard 0–3 NEC Nijmegen | 0.88–1.25 | 26% · 29% · 45% | Win in line with xG for NEC Nijmegen |
| Heerenveen 4–0 NAC Breda | 2.60–1.72 | 57% · 18% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
| Willem II 1–2 Sparta Rotterdam | 0.39–0.93 | 15% · 37% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Sparta Rotterdam |
| Utrecht 2–1 Twente | 0.86–1.07 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Close call, Utrecht won |
| PEC Zwolle 3–0 Heracles | 2.42–0.60 | 78% · 15% · 7% | Win in line with xG for PEC Zwolle |
| PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Go Ahead Eagles | 2.12–1.17 | 59% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Feyenoord 0–2 Ajax | 1.52–0.81 | 54% · 26% · 20% | Won against the xG: Ajax |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.