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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 25.7 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 2.91–0.52 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Twente had 86% |
| PSV Eindhoven 2–0 NEC Nijmegen | 2.99–0.12 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for PSV Eindhoven |
| Groningen 2–2 Feyenoord | 0.99–1.17 | 31% · 29% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| NAC Breda 1–0 Fortuna Sittard | 0.63–0.61 | 30% · 41% · 29% | Close call, NAC Breda won |
| AZ Alkmaar 9–1 Heerenveen | 5.23–1.93 | 85% · 7% · 7% | Win in line with xG for AZ Alkmaar |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Go Ahead Eagles | 1.54–0.90 | 52% · 26% · 22% | Won against the xG: Go Ahead Eagles |
| Willem II 3–0 Waalwijk | 1.56–0.70 | 58% · 25% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Willem II |
| Heracles 0–0 Almere City FC | 1.46–0.55 | 60% · 27% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Heracles had 60% |
| Ajax 2–2 Utrecht | 0.68–1.23 | 21% · 30% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.