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9 of 9 matches with xG: 30 goals from 29.2 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda 0–1 PSV Eindhoven | 1.27–0.56 | 54% · 30% · 16% | Won against the xG: PSV Eindhoven |
| Ajax 1–2 Excelsior | 1.44–0.51 | 60% · 27% · 13% | Won against the xG: Excelsior |
| FC Volendam 1–1 Twente | 1.39–2.61 | 19% · 18% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Twente had 64% |
| Heracles 4–2 Go Ahead Eagles | 2.63–0.90 | 74% · 15% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Heracles |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Fortuna Sittard | 1.84–1.17 | 53% · 23% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Sparta Rotterdam had 53% |
| Heerenveen 3–1 AZ Alkmaar | 3.14–1.17 | 76% · 13% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Heerenveen |
| Feyenoord 2–4 NEC Nijmegen | 2.82–2.26 | 51% · 18% · 32% | Close call, NEC Nijmegen won |
| Telstar 1–1 Utrecht | 1.31–0.87 | 47% · 28% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Groningen 2–2 PEC Zwolle | 2.55–0.77 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Groningen had 76% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.