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9 of 9 matches with xG: 24 goals from 21.0 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves 2–1 Vizela | 1.71–0.70 | 62% · 23% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Chaves |
| Rio Ave 1–1 Estrela | 1.23–0.21 | 64% · 30% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Rio Ave had 64% |
| Farense 1–2 Vitória Guimarães | 1.48–1.18 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Vitória Guimarães won |
| Famalicao 0–3 FC Porto | 0.94–0.75 | 38% · 34% · 28% | Close call, FC Porto won |
| Casa Pia 1–0 Portimonense | 0.79–0.80 | 32% · 35% · 33% | Close call, Casa Pia won |
| SC Braga 3–1 Estoril | 3.36–0.43 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for SC Braga |
| Moreirense 0–0 Benfica | 0.98–1.40 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Boavista 0–4 Arouca | 0.98–1.97 | 18% · 21% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Arouca |
| Sporting CP 3–1 Gil Vicente | 1.77–0.29 | 74% · 20% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.