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9 of 9 matches with xG: 28 goals from 22.0 xG (1.27 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia 1–2 Sporting CP | 0.84–0.92 | 31% · 33% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
| Vitória Guimarães 2–1 Gil Vicente | 0.94–1.17 | 29% · 30% · 41% | Close call, Vitória Guimarães won |
| Chaves 2–4 SC Braga | 1.32–0.86 | 47% · 28% · 24% | Won against the xG: SC Braga |
| Portimonense 1–4 Boavista | 1.34–2.26 | 22% · 20% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Boavista |
| Benfica 2–0 Estrela | 2.95–0.40 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Benfica |
| Estoril 2–0 Rio Ave | 2.01–0.80 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Estoril |
| FC Porto 2–1 Farense | 1.99–0.49 | 73% · 19% · 8% | Win in line with xG for FC Porto |
| Vizela 2–2 Arouca | 1.77–0.89 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Vizela had 58% |
| Famalicao 0–0 Moreirense | 0.29–0.79 | 13% · 42% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.