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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 21.7 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente 2–2 Arouca | 1.11–2.02 | 20% · 21% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Arouca had 58% |
| Casa Pia 3–1 Chaves | 0.79–1.70 | 17% · 24% · 59% | Won against the xG: Casa Pia |
| Vizela 1–1 Rio Ave | 1.16–0.48 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Vizela had 53% |
| Benfica 3–1 SC Braga | 2.42–1.00 | 69% · 17% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Benfica |
| Vitória Guimarães 1–0 Boavista | 0.23–0.45 | 14% · 56% · 30% | Won against the xG: Vitória Guimarães |
| Portimonense 0–2 Moreirense | 0.31–0.89 | 12% · 39% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Moreirense |
| Estoril 1–0 Famalicao | 0.36–0.89 | 14% · 39% · 47% | Won against the xG: Estoril |
| FC Porto 2–2 Sporting CP | 1.24–1.62 | 29% · 24% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Estrela 0–3 Farense | 2.56–2.47 | 42% · 18% · 39% | Close call, Farense won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.