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8 of 8 matches with xG: 26 goals from 22.6 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo 1–3 FC Krasnodar | 1.46–1.53 | 36% · 24% · 39% | Win in line with xG for FC Krasnodar |
| Ural 2–1 CSKA Moscow | 1.78–1.02 | 55% · 23% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Ural |
| Nizhny Novgorod 0–2 Zenit | 0.52–0.78 | 22% · 39% · 38% | Close call, Zenit won |
| Lokomotiv 2–2 Rubin | 1.32–1.31 | 37% · 26% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Akhmat 1–2 Krylia Sovetov | 2.53–1.50 | 60% · 18% · 22% | Won against the xG: Krylia Sovetov |
| Spartak Moscow 3–2 FC Orenburg | 1.78–1.07 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Spartak Moscow |
| FC Rostov 2–1 Fakel | 1.49–2.48 | 22% · 19% · 59% | Won against the xG: FC Rostov |
| FC Sochi 2–0 Baltika | 1.51–0.56 | 61% · 26% · 14% | Win in line with xG for FC Sochi |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.