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7 of 8 matches with xG: 16 goals from 19.1 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo 1–1 Baltika | 1.27–0.67 | 51% · 29% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Dynamo had 51% |
| Akron 1–1 Krylia Sovetov | 1.13–1.29 | 32% · 27% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lokomotiv 3–0 FC Sochi | 2.67–0.40 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Lokomotiv |
| Spartak Moscow 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala | 2.34–0.21 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Spartak Moscow |
| Nizhny Novgorod 0–3 FC Krasnodar | 0.72–2.14 | 11% · 19% · 70% | Win in line with xG for FC Krasnodar |
| Zenit 2–1 FC Rostov | 3.19–1.07 | 79% · 12% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Zenit |
| Akhmat 0–2 Rubin | 1.42–0.60 | 57% · 27% · 16% | Won against the xG: Rubin |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.