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6 of 8 matches with xG: 20 goals from 19.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva 3–3 Akron | 1.19–1.92 | 23% · 22% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Akron had 54% |
| FC Rostov 1–1 Rubin | 0.91–1.56 | 22% · 25% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Rubin had 53% |
| FC Krasnodar 1–0 Akhmat | 1.51–1.14 | 46% · 26% · 29% | Win in line with xG for FC Krasnodar |
| Zenit 3–0 Dynamo | 1.40–0.89 | 49% · 27% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Zenit |
| Krylia Sovetov 1–4 Dinamo Makhachkala | 2.72–3.68 | 28% · 15% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Dinamo Makhachkala |
| Baltika 1–2 Spartak Moscow | 1.81–1.00 | 56% · 23% · 21% | Won against the xG: Spartak Moscow |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.