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8 of 9 matches with xG: 27 goals from 26.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abha 1–2 Al-Hazm | 0.42–1.22 | 13% · 31% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Al-Hazm |
| Al Shabab 1–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1.27–2.64 | 16% · 17% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Al-Qadisiyah FC |
| NEOM 2–1 Al-Fayha | 1.10–1.09 | 36% · 29% · 35% | Win in line with xG for NEOM |
| Al-Ettifaq 4–2 Al Riyadh | 2.67–0.63 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Al-Ettifaq |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4–2 Al-Faisaly FC | 4.50–1.82 | 81% · 9% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
| Al Taawon 0–0 Al Khaleej Saihat | 1.45–0.72 | 55% · 27% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Al Taawon had 55% |
| Al-Ittihad FC 1–1 Al Kholood | 2.34–2.27 | 42% · 19% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Al-Nassr 3–0 Al-Fateh | 1.63–1.06 | 51% · 25% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Al-Nassr |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.