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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 29.2 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves 1–0 Getafe | 1.18–0.33 | 58% · 32% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Alaves |
| Athletic Club 2–0 Sevilla | 1.57–0.87 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Atletico Madrid 1–4 Osasuna | 1.56–1.91 | 32% · 22% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Osasuna |
| Barcelona 3–0 Rayo Vallecano | 1.26–1.28 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Close call, Barcelona won |
| Real Betis 0–2 Real Sociedad | 1.69–0.46 | 68% · 23% · 10% | Won against the xG: Real Sociedad |
| Cadiz 0–0 Las Palmas | 0.88–0.56 | 41% · 37% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mallorca 2–2 Almeria | 3.01–0.42 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Mallorca had 88% |
| Granada CF 1–2 Celta Vigo | 1.92–1.68 | 44% · 22% · 34% | Close call, Celta Vigo won |
| Valencia 1–3 Girona | 3.17–2.62 | 51% · 17% · 33% | Close call, Girona won |
| Villarreal 4–4 Real Madrid | 1.78–1.04 | 55% · 23% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Villarreal had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.