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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 28.9 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna 2–1 Getafe | 0.43–0.82 | 18% · 40% · 42% | Won against the xG: Osasuna |
| Oviedo 0–2 Levante | 1.31–1.94 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Levante |
| Girona 2–1 Valencia | 1.02–1.14 | 32% · 29% · 38% | Close call, Girona won |
| Athletic Club 2–1 Mallorca | 2.05–0.32 | 79% · 17% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal | 3.52–1.00 | 83% · 10% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Alaves 3–1 Elche | 2.42–0.38 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Alaves |
| Sevilla 4–1 Barcelona | 2.80–2.25 | 51% · 18% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Sevilla |
| Espanyol 1–2 Real Betis | 2.28–1.40 | 57% · 20% · 23% | Won against the xG: Real Betis |
| Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo Vallecano | 0.79–0.80 | 32% · 35% · 33% | Close call, Rayo Vallecano won |
| Celta Vigo 1–1 Atletico Madrid | 1.92–0.30 | 77% · 18% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Celta Vigo had 77% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.