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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 28.2 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir 3–1 Sivasspor | 3.59–0.39 | 93% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Başakşehir |
| İstanbulspor 1–2 Trabzonspor | 0.68–1.40 | 18% · 28% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Trabzonspor |
| Gaziantep FK 2–2 Adana Demirspor | 1.11–1.60 | 26% · 25% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kayserispor 3–4 Fenerbahçe | 2.09–1.81 | 45% · 21% · 34% | Close call, Fenerbahçe won |
| Galatasaray 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük | 1.65–0.37 | 69% · 23% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Galatasaray |
| Antalyaspor 0–0 Kasımpaşa | 0.38–0.34 | 24% · 55% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Samsunspor 1–1 Konyaspor | 1.20–1.51 | 30% · 25% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rizespor 5–1 Pendikspor | 3.22–1.12 | 78% · 12% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Rizespor |
| Beşiktaş 1–3 Alanyaspor | 1.79–1.85 | 38% · 22% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Alanyaspor |
| Ankaragücü 0–0 Hatayspor | 1.36–0.74 | 52% · 28% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Ankaragücü had 52% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.