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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 24.7 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 1–3 Charlotte | 1.01–2.27 | 15% · 19% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Columbus Crew 2–2 Orlando City SC | 3.50–1.31 | 78% · 12% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Columbus Crew had 78% |
| DC United 1–1 Nashville SC | 0.52–0.60 | 26% · 44% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter Miami 2–1 New England Revolution | 0.89–1.01 | 31% · 32% · 37% | Close call, Inter Miami won |
| CF Montreal 2–0 Toronto FC | 1.75–0.32 | 73% · 21% · 6% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| Austin 0–1 FC Dallas | 0.36–0.45 | 21% · 52% · 27% | Close call, FC Dallas won |
| Houston Dynamo 0–1 Seattle Sounders | 0.38–1.80 | 7% · 20% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–0 Minnesota United FC | 0.91–1.32 | 26% · 28% · 46% | Won against the xG: Sporting Kansas City |
| Colorado Rapids 1–2 Philadelphia Union | 1.43–0.98 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Won against the xG: Philadelphia Union |
| Real Salt Lake 0–3 LAFC | 1.40–2.45 | 21% · 19% · 61% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.