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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 26.2 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy 0–1 Charlotte | 1.73–1.78 | 38% · 22% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Sporting Kansas City 4–1 Portland Timbers | 1.73–1.16 | 51% · 24% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Sporting Kansas City |
| Nashville SC 3–1 Columbus Crew | 2.42–0.70 | 75% · 16% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Atlanta United FC 3–3 New England Revolution | 1.70–0.98 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Atlanta United FC had 54% |
| Columbus Crew 3–2 Colorado Rapids | 1.20–1.23 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Close call, Columbus Crew won |
| DC United 2–2 CF Montreal | 0.88–1.34 | 25% · 28% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter Miami 0–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.11–2.40 | 16% · 18% · 66% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| New York City FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati | 0.90–1.24 | 27% · 29% · 44% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Philadelphia Union 1–0 Charlotte | 0.93–0.27 | 51% · 38% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Toronto FC 0–0 Chicago Fire | 1.92–0.55 | 70% · 20% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Toronto FC had 70% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.