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9 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 23.3 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati 1–0 Chicago Fire | 0.94–0.32 | 50% · 38% · 12% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Columbus Crew 4–2 Charlotte | 1.76–1.30 | 48% · 23% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| Austin 1–2 Real Salt Lake | 1.96–0.91 | 62% · 21% · 17% | Won against the xG: Real Salt Lake |
| FC Dallas 1–2 Nashville SC | 1.37–0.91 | 48% · 28% · 25% | Won against the xG: Nashville SC |
| Minnesota United FC 1–1 Toronto FC | 1.92–0.57 | 70% · 20% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Minnesota United FC had 70% |
| St. Louis City SC 3–0 Houston Dynamo | 2.35–1.40 | 59% · 19% · 22% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Colorado Rapids 0–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.66–0.76 | 59% · 24% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Colorado Rapids had 59% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.23–0.87 | 45% · 29% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| LAFC 0–0 Atlanta United FC | 2.33–0.75 | 73% · 17% · 10% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 73% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.