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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 27.6 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAFC 4–2 LA Galaxy | 1.54–0.81 | 55% · 26% · 20% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt Lake | 1.86–2.23 | 33% · 20% · 47% | Close call, San Jose Earthquakes won |
| Austin 1–2 Portland Timbers | 1.52–1.84 | 32% · 23% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
| Charlotte 2–2 Philadelphia Union | 1.86–1.29 | 51% · 23% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Charlotte had 51% |
| Columbus Crew 3–0 Chicago Fire | 2.26–0.38 | 80% · 15% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| DC United 1–1 Atlanta United FC | 2.02–0.67 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Draw against the xG: DC United had 69% |
| Inter Miami 4–0 Toronto FC | 1.39–0.71 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| CF Montreal 1–1 FC Cincinnati | 0.18–2.25 | 2% · 13% · 85% | Draw against the xG: FC Cincinnati had 85% |
| New York Red Bulls 1–1 Austin | 1.17–0.26 | 60% · 32% · 8% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 60% |
| New York City FC 2–0 Orlando City SC | 2.16–1.18 | 60% · 20% · 20% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.