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10 of 10 matches with xG: 36 goals from 31.0 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 1–1 Columbus Crew | 1.12–2.11 | 19% · 21% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Columbus Crew had 60% |
| DC United 2–0 New York City FC | 1.42–0.99 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Inter Miami 0–1 FC Cincinnati | 0.87–1.84 | 17% · 22% · 60% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| CF Montreal 4–1 Portland Timbers | 2.08–2.25 | 37% · 20% · 43% | Close call, CF Montreal won |
| New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FC | 1.71–0.14 | 78% · 20% · 3% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| Austin 2–4 LAFC | 0.45–2.97 | 3% · 9% · 87% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Chicago Fire 0–2 Charlotte | 1.01–1.18 | 31% · 29% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| FC Dallas 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.15–0.74 | 45% · 31% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Houston Dynamo 5–1 Colorado Rapids | 2.59–0.78 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Minnesota United FC 5–2 LA Galaxy | 2.62–2.94 | 36% · 17% · 47% | Close call, Minnesota United FC won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.