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10 of 10 matches with xG: 37 goals from 28.9 xG (1.28 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 5–1 Portland Timbers | 2.97–0.71 | 83% · 11% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| CF Montreal 3–2 Philadelphia Union | 1.81–1.31 | 49% · 23% · 28% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| New England Revolution 1–0 Nashville SC | 1.14–1.09 | 37% · 29% · 34% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| New York Red Bulls 2–1 Columbus Crew | 1.40–0.54 | 58% · 27% · 14% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| New York City FC 3–2 DC United | 2.05–0.72 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Orlando City SC 1–2 Charlotte | 1.47–0.71 | 55% · 27% · 18% | Won against the xG: Charlotte |
| Chicago Fire 3–3 FC Cincinnati | 1.81–1.76 | 40% · 22% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Dallas 2–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.18–1.35 | 33% · 27% · 41% | Close call, FC Dallas won |
| Houston Dynamo 2–0 Austin | 1.83–0.96 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| St. Louis City SC 3–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.13–1.91 | 44% · 20% · 36% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.