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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 28.9 xG (0.80 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle Sounders | 0.77–1.01 | 27% · 33% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 2–3 Inter Miami | 0.64–0.93 | 24% · 35% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Minnesota United FC 1–2 Houston Dynamo | 2.39–0.43 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Won against the xG: Houston Dynamo |
| Real Salt Lake 0–0 Columbus Crew | 1.77–0.55 | 67% · 22% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Real Salt Lake had 67% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 LA Galaxy | 2.39–2.46 | 39% · 19% · 42% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Colorado Rapids | 2.38–1.92 | 49% · 19% · 32% | Close call, Colorado Rapids won |
| Atlanta United FC 2–2 Philadelphia Union | 1.62–1.11 | 49% · 25% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| St. Louis City SC 1–0 Austin | 1.52–0.32 | 68% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| New York City FC 2–0 DC United | 3.00–0.64 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Toronto FC 1–0 New England Revolution | 1.50–1.58 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Close call, Toronto FC won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.