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10 of 10 matches with xG: 43 goals from 35.5 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte 2–2 Orlando City SC | 0.89–1.74 | 19% · 24% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Orlando City SC had 57% |
| DC United 0–1 Atlanta United FC | 1.21–0.83 | 45% · 30% · 25% | Won against the xG: Atlanta United FC |
| Inter Miami 2–1 Columbus Crew | 1.06–1.38 | 29% · 27% · 44% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| CF Montreal 2–2 New York Red Bulls | 1.96–2.58 | 30% · 19% · 52% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 52% |
| FC Cincinnati 4–3 Philadelphia Union | 2.16–1.25 | 58% · 20% · 21% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Austin 1–1 LAFC | 0.26–0.97 | 10% · 37% · 53% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 53% |
| FC Dallas 5–3 Minnesota United FC | 1.67–3.32 | 16% · 14% · 70% | Won against the xG: FC Dallas |
| Houston Dynamo 2–2 Seattle Sounders | 2.60–1.06 | 70% · 16% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Houston Dynamo had 70% |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Real Salt Lake | 2.76–2.68 | 43% · 18% · 40% | Close call, Real Salt Lake won |
| St. Louis City SC 0–3 Colorado Rapids | 1.73–3.39 | 16% · 14% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.