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10 of 10 matches with xG: 36 goals from 34.9 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew 2–0 Nashville SC | 2.35–0.77 | 73% · 17% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| Charlotte 1–2 Inter Miami | 1.65–1.74 | 37% · 23% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| DC United 2–3 FC Cincinnati | 1.10–0.87 | 41% · 31% · 29% | Close call, FC Cincinnati won |
| New York City FC 2–0 CF Montreal | 2.74–0.88 | 76% · 14% · 9% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SC | 1.52–1.06 | 48% · 26% · 26% | Won against the xG: Orlando City SC |
| New England Revolution 2–1 Atlanta United FC | 1.30–1.61 | 31% · 24% · 45% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| Chicago Fire 4–3 Philadelphia Union | 3.21–1.35 | 74% · 14% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Minnesota United FC 1–3 Vancouver Whitecaps | 3.20–1.40 | 73% · 14% · 13% | Won against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps |
| St. Louis City SC 2–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 3.37–0.33 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Real Salt Lake 3–2 Houston Dynamo | 3.59–0.90 | 86% · 9% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.