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10 of 10 matches with xG: 36 goals from 26.8 xG (1.34 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC | 1.42–1.46 | 37% · 25% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Cincinnati 0–1 Chicago Fire | 1.53–1.56 | 37% · 24% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Columbus Crew 1–1 Charlotte | 1.83–2.11 | 34% · 21% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter Miami 3–1 Toronto FC | 1.38–0.83 | 50% · 28% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| New York Red Bulls 2–2 CF Montreal | 1.87–1.28 | 51% · 23% · 26% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 51% |
| Philadelphia Union 5–1 New England Revolution | 2.25–0.12 | 87% · 12% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| FC Dallas 3–1 Austin | 2.14–0.73 | 70% · 19% · 11% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Minnesota United FC 2–3 DC United | 0.64–1.29 | 18% · 29% · 52% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Nashville SC 0–3 Orlando City SC | 0.34–1.34 | 9% · 28% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.32–1.33 | 37% · 26% · 37% | Close call, Vancouver Whitecaps won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.