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10 of 10 matches with xG: 40 goals from 35.3 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 2–1 Columbus Crew | 2.00–1.68 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| Austin 2–2 Charlotte | 1.82–2.34 | 30% · 20% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis City SC | 2.19–0.80 | 69% · 19% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Sporting Kansas City had 69% |
| Minnesota United FC 2–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.03–1.46 | 51% · 21% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Colorado Rapids 3–2 Real Salt Lake | 2.18–0.73 | 71% · 18% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 3–4 Houston Dynamo | 3.37–1.20 | 78% · 12% · 10% | Won against the xG: Houston Dynamo |
| Seattle Sounders 0–3 LAFC | 1.91–1.85 | 40% · 21% · 38% | Close call, LAFC won |
| LA Galaxy 3–2 Portland Timbers | 1.75–1.16 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| Minnesota United FC 2–3 Seattle Sounders | 2.05–1.70 | 46% · 21% · 32% | Close call, Seattle Sounders won |
| New York City FC 2–2 Chicago Fire | 1.47–1.57 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.