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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 33.5 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte 1–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.22–1.66 | 28% · 24% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| DC United 3–4 FC Dallas | 1.40–2.50 | 20% · 18% · 61% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Inter Miami 2–0 FC Cincinnati | 0.39–1.58 | 9% · 24% · 67% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| CF Montreal 0–5 New England Revolution | 0.91–2.20 | 14% · 19% · 67% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Houston Dynamo 0–1 Toronto FC | 1.18–0.58 | 51% · 31% · 18% | Won against the xG: Toronto FC |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–0 Orlando City SC | 1.10–1.34 | 31% · 27% · 42% | Close call, Sporting Kansas City won |
| Nashville SC 0–2 Austin | 1.92–2.10 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Austin |
| Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose Earthquakes | 0.62–1.80 | 12% · 22% · 66% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| LA Galaxy 2–0 Atlanta United FC | 4.20–1.03 | 89% · 7% · 4% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| Portland Timbers 4–4 St. Louis City SC | 4.22–1.59 | 81% · 10% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Portland Timbers had 81% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.