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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 27.4 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 FC Dallas | 1.80–0.74 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps had 63% |
| Atlanta United FC 0–2 Nashville SC | 0.59–1.46 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| FC Cincinnati 0–0 Columbus Crew | 0.24–1.17 | 8% · 32% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Columbus Crew had 61% |
| DC United 1–1 New York City FC | 1.19–1.13 | 37% · 28% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter Miami 3–1 Philadelphia Union | 1.13–1.85 | 23% · 23% · 54% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| CF Montreal 2–1 Charlotte | 1.29–1.52 | 32% · 25% · 43% | Close call, CF Montreal won |
| Orlando City SC 3–0 New England Revolution | 1.87–1.10 | 55% · 23% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| Toronto FC 2–1 Austin | 0.99–3.43 | 7% · 10% · 83% | Won against the xG: Toronto FC |
| Houston Dynamo 4–1 Real Salt Lake | 1.41–0.56 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| St. Louis City SC 1–3 Minnesota United FC | 1.47–2.46 | 22% · 19% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.