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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 33.2 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 1–2 CF Montreal | 1.76–0.90 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Won against the xG: CF Montreal |
| Columbus Crew 2–3 Inter Miami | 1.82–1.09 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| Houston Dynamo 2–1 New England Revolution | 2.82–2.81 | 42% · 17% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Nashville SC 3–4 DC United | 2.56–2.88 | 36% · 17% · 47% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Colorado Rapids 1–3 LA Galaxy | 0.82–2.11 | 13% · 19% · 67% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| Real Salt Lake 0–0 Minnesota United FC | 1.07–0.77 | 42% · 32% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| LAFC 1–0 St. Louis City SC | 2.12–0.48 | 76% · 17% · 7% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Portland Timbers 0–1 Austin | 2.54–0.38 | 84% · 12% · 4% | Won against the xG: Austin |
| San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 FC Dallas | 2.08–1.41 | 53% · 21% · 26% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3 Seattle Sounders | 1.06–1.74 | 23% · 24% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.