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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 30.6 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 4–1 New England Revolution | 3.25–0.70 | 86% · 10% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| Columbus Crew 2–1 Chicago Fire | 1.33–1.72 | 30% · 24% · 47% | Won against the xG: Columbus Crew |
| Austin 2–2 St. Louis City SC | 0.96–2.10 | 16% · 20% · 64% | Draw against the xG: St. Louis City SC had 64% |
| Real Salt Lake 1–2 Colorado Rapids | 1.61–1.41 | 42% · 24% · 34% | Close call, Colorado Rapids won |
| LAFC 0–0 Sporting Kansas City | 1.39–0.58 | 57% · 28% · 16% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 57% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.65–0.68 | 29% · 39% · 31% | Close call, Vancouver Whitecaps won |
| FC Cincinnati 0–0 DC United | 1.77–0.55 | 67% · 22% · 11% | Draw against the xG: FC Cincinnati had 67% |
| Nashville SC 2–2 LA Galaxy | 1.35–1.93 | 27% · 22% · 51% | Draw against the xG: LA Galaxy had 51% |
| Inter Miami 2–3 CF Montreal | 2.77–2.09 | 53% · 18% · 29% | Won against the xG: CF Montreal |
| DC United 1–3 Inter Miami | 1.42–2.30 | 23% · 20% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.