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15 of 15 matches with xG: 46 goals from 47.7 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 1–1 Nashville SC | 0.95–1.45 | 25% · 27% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Toronto FC 0–2 New England Revolution | 1.13–2.78 | 13% · 15% · 72% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Columbus Crew 4–2 Charlotte | 2.57–1.77 | 55% · 19% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| DC United 2–1 Colorado Rapids | 1.06–1.33 | 30% · 27% · 43% | Close call, DC United won |
| Inter Miami 4–1 New York Red Bulls | 2.20–0.56 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| CF Montreal 1–2 Philadelphia Union | 1.25–0.96 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Close call, Philadelphia Union won |
| Austin 0–3 Minnesota United FC | 1.13–0.51 | 51% · 32% · 17% | Won against the xG: Minnesota United FC |
| Chicago Fire 0–0 Orlando City SC | 2.62–2.03 | 51% · 18% · 30% | Draw against the xG: Chicago Fire had 51% |
| San Diego 5–0 FC Dallas | 2.13–0.52 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Real Salt Lake | 3.07–1.56 | 68% · 15% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| LAFC 2–0 Houston Dynamo | 2.12–0.23 | 82% · 15% · 3% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| San Jose Earthquakes 4–1 Portland Timbers | 2.13–1.85 | 45% · 21% · 34% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Seattle Sounders 4–1 St. Louis City SC | 3.83–1.06 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| New York City FC 1–0 FC Cincinnati | 2.44–1.07 | 67% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–0 LA Galaxy | 0.00–1.39 | 0% · 25% · 75% | Won against the xG: Sporting Kansas City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.