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14 of 14 matches with xG: 46 goals from 44.4 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 3–2 Orlando City SC | 1.80–0.91 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| FC Cincinnati 3–3 FC Dallas | 2.54–0.96 | 72% · 16% · 12% | Draw against the xG: FC Cincinnati had 72% |
| DC United 1–1 New England Revolution | 1.17–1.14 | 37% · 28% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter Miami 4–2 CF Montreal | 2.63–1.76 | 57% · 18% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| New York Red Bulls 4–2 Charlotte | 2.15–1.91 | 44% · 20% · 35% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| New York City FC 0–3 Houston Dynamo | 0.53–2.55 | 6% · 13% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Toronto FC 1–2 Philadelphia Union | 0.97–1.36 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Columbus Crew 2–2 Nashville SC | 2.26–2.77 | 32% · 18% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Austin 1–1 Real Salt Lake | 2.09–1.74 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Seattle Sounders 1–0 San Diego | 0.47–1.08 | 16% · 33% · 51% | Won against the xG: Seattle Sounders |
| LA Galaxy 0–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.27–1.07 | 41% · 28% · 31% | Close call, San Jose Earthquakes won |
| Portland Timbers 2–1 Colorado Rapids | 3.65–1.01 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 Minnesota United FC | 1.41–0.15 | 71% · 26% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps had 71% |
| LAFC 3–1 Sporting Kansas City | 2.80–0.23 | 90% · 8% · 2% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.