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14 of 15 matches with xG: 42 goals from 40.7 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC | 0.64–0.61 | 30% · 41% · 29% | Close call, Atlanta United FC won |
| CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FC | 0.95–0.43 | 47% · 37% · 16% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| Minnesota United FC 0–1 LAFC | 1.88–0.80 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Won against the xG: LAFC |
| Inter Miami 1–1 New England Revolution | 3.00–1.54 | 67% · 16% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Inter Miami had 67% |
| Columbus Crew 2–0 Philadelphia Union | 1.25–0.73 | 49% · 30% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| FC Cincinnati 2–0 New York Red Bulls | 2.86–1.44 | 67% · 16% · 17% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Nashville SC 4–2 Charlotte | 1.23–1.15 | 38% · 28% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Chicago Fire 5–0 Sporting Kansas City | 2.72–0.36 | 87% · 10% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Austin 2–0 Houston Dynamo | 0.93–0.66 | 40% · 35% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Austin |
| St. Louis City SC 2–3 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.33–1.50 | 56% · 20% · 24% | Won against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes |
| San Diego 1–2 Portland Timbers | 1.43–1.13 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Portland Timbers won |
| Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC Dallas | 1.80–0.50 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1 Colorado Rapids | 3.50–1.51 | 75% · 13% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| LA Galaxy 2–1 Real Salt Lake | 2.61–1.19 | 68% · 17% · 15% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.