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14 of 15 matches with xG: 34 goals from 43.1 xG (0.79 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 0.83–1.09 | 27% · 31% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Seattle Sounders | 1.29–1.81 | 27% · 23% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Real Salt Lake 2–0 Portland Timbers | 3.77–1.15 | 84% · 10% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| Philadelphia Union 0–0 Nashville SC | 1.64–0.50 | 66% · 24% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Philadelphia Union had 66% |
| Columbus Crew 2–3 Minnesota United FC | 1.02–1.22 | 31% · 29% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF Montreal | 1.23–0.92 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| New York Red Bulls 0–2 FC Dallas | 0.85–1.63 | 19% · 25% · 56% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| New England Revolution 1–0 Charlotte | 1.58–1.10 | 48% · 25% · 26% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Chicago Fire 2–3 FC Cincinnati | 4.47–1.58 | 84% · 9% · 8% | Won against the xG: FC Cincinnati |
| Houston Dynamo 1–0 Colorado Rapids | 0.50–0.44 | 28% · 48% · 24% | Close call, Houston Dynamo won |
| San Diego 2–2 LAFC | 0.98–1.18 | 30% · 29% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| LA Galaxy 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.38–2.61 | 19% · 18% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps had 64% |
| New York City FC 0–2 DC United | 0.56–2.79 | 5% · 12% · 83% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Austin 2–0 St. Louis City SC | 1.82–3.16 | 20% · 16% · 64% | Won against the xG: Austin |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.