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15 of 15 matches with xG: 53 goals from 43.4 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami | 0.81–1.77 | 17% · 23% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Chicago Fire 1–3 New York Red Bulls | 0.78–1.49 | 20% · 26% · 54% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| CF Montreal 2–0 Orlando City SC | 2.31–0.64 | 75% · 16% · 9% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| Atlanta United FC 1–2 LA Galaxy | 1.06–2.14 | 18% · 20% · 62% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| Charlotte 2–2 FC Cincinnati | 2.01–1.44 | 51% · 22% · 28% | Draw against the xG: Charlotte had 51% |
| New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia Union | 1.05–1.27 | 31% · 28% · 41% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| FC Dallas 3–1 Real Salt Lake | 2.05–0.59 | 72% · 19% · 10% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Nashville SC 2–2 DC United | 2.02–1.38 | 52% · 22% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Nashville SC had 52% |
| Colorado Rapids 0–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.33–1.94 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Seattle Sounders 1–1 San Diego | 2.53–1.86 | 53% · 19% · 28% | Draw against the xG: Seattle Sounders had 53% |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.02–2.23 | 16% · 19% · 65% | Draw against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps had 65% |
| Portland Timbers 6–0 Sporting Kansas City | 1.50–0.49 | 62% · 26% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
| New York City FC 3–0 Columbus Crew | 1.03–1.07 | 34% · 30% · 36% | Close call, New York City FC won |
| Minnesota United FC 2–2 Austin | 2.20–1.32 | 57% · 20% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Minnesota United FC had 57% |
| LAFC 1–4 Houston Dynamo | 1.21–0.81 | 45% · 30% · 25% | Won against the xG: Houston Dynamo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.