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14 of 14 matches with xG: 58 goals from 42.7 xG (1.36 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte 0–1 New York City FC | 0.51–0.63 | 25% · 43% · 32% | Close call, New York City FC won |
| FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter Miami | 1.76–2.21 | 31% · 20% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Orlando City SC 4–3 Philadelphia Union | 2.87–1.62 | 64% · 17% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| New York Red Bulls 3–2 Columbus Crew | 2.79–1.51 | 64% · 17% · 19% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| New England Revolution 0–3 Nashville SC | 0.60–0.39 | 34% · 46% · 20% | Close call, Nashville SC won |
| CF Montreal 2–2 Portland Timbers | 1.85–1.99 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| DC United 1–3 Chicago Fire | 0.69–2.29 | 10% · 17% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| St. Louis City SC 2–1 LAFC | 1.72–1.68 | 40% · 23% · 38% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–1 LA Galaxy | 2.05–1.14 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Sporting Kansas City |
| FC Dallas 2–3 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.35–0.67 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Won against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Minnesota United FC 0–1 Colorado Rapids | 1.16–0.64 | 48% · 31% · 20% | Won against the xG: Colorado Rapids |
| Seattle Sounders 3–2 San Jose Earthquakes | 3.41–1.63 | 71% · 14% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| San Diego 5–0 Austin | 2.51–0.66 | 78% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| Real Salt Lake 3–0 Houston Dynamo | 0.95–1.39 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Won against the xG: Real Salt Lake |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.