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14 of 15 matches with xG: 42 goals from 41.5 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal 0–2 Chicago Fire | 0.96–1.08 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Philadelphia Union 1–1 Columbus Crew | 1.09–0.41 | 53% · 33% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Philadelphia Union had 53% |
| New York Red Bulls 1–1 New York City FC | 2.41–1.73 | 53% · 19% · 28% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 53% |
| Charlotte 3–1 Toronto FC | 2.14–1.20 | 59% · 20% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| New England Revolution 2–1 Minnesota United FC | 1.75–1.81 | 38% · 22% · 40% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| DC United 1–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.00–0.94 | 36% · 31% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Houston Dynamo 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.15–0.67 | 47% · 31% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Austin 1–2 Sporting Kansas City | 0.37–1.52 | 9% · 25% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Sporting Kansas City |
| Seattle Sounders 0–2 LA Galaxy | 1.53–2.24 | 26% · 20% · 54% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| Real Salt Lake 2–1 Colorado Rapids | 1.55–0.44 | 65% · 25% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| San Diego 3–3 FC Cincinnati | 1.87–2.25 | 33% · 20% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 FC Dallas | 1.96–2.75 | 27% · 18% · 55% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Inter Miami 2–0 Portland Timbers | 3.05–0.82 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Nashville SC 3–2 LAFC | 0.63–2.14 | 10% · 18% · 72% | Won against the xG: Nashville SC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.