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14 of 15 matches with xG: 33 goals from 37.5 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls 0–2 Charlotte | 2.38–0.62 | 77% · 16% · 8% | Won against the xG: Charlotte |
| Columbus Crew 2–1 FC Cincinnati | 2.35–1.06 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| CF Montreal 0–1 Inter Miami | 2.04–1.81 | 44% · 21% · 35% | Close call, Inter Miami won |
| Philadelphia Union 1–0 Seattle Sounders | 1.21–0.36 | 58% · 31% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire | 1.39–1.36 | 38% · 26% · 37% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| New England Revolution 4–1 Atlanta United FC | 2.02–1.44 | 51% · 22% · 27% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| DC United 2–1 Toronto FC | 2.43–1.42 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Minnesota United FC 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.97–0.46 | 47% · 36% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Houston Dynamo 3–0 Austin | 1.73–0.86 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| St. Louis City SC 1–0 Colorado Rapids | 0.91–0.10 | 56% · 40% · 4% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| San Diego 1–0 FC Dallas | 1.29–0.48 | 57% · 29% · 14% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| LAFC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City | 1.37–0.56 | 57% · 28% · 15% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 LA Galaxy | 3.22–1.29 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Draw against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes had 75% |
| Portland Timbers 2–1 Real Salt Lake | 2.21–0.21 | 84% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.