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14 of 15 matches with xG: 40 goals from 44.3 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls | 2.40–1.89 | 50% · 19% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| Charlotte 3–1 Columbus Crew | 1.91–1.42 | 49% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Toronto FC 2–1 New England Revolution | 0.24–2.22 | 3% · 14% · 83% | Won against the xG: Toronto FC |
| CF Montreal 1–1 DC United | 1.88–0.56 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Draw against the xG: CF Montreal had 69% |
| Nashville SC 4–1 Inter Miami | 2.41–1.83 | 51% · 19% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Houston Dynamo 1–0 LA Galaxy | 1.29–0.96 | 44% · 28% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Real Salt Lake 1–1 Minnesota United FC | 2.39–2.05 | 47% · 19% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Colorado Rapids 2–0 Sporting Kansas City | 2.92–0.98 | 77% · 14% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| LAFC 0–1 San Diego | 0.94–1.14 | 30% · 30% · 40% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis City SC | 0.19–2.63 | 2% · 9% · 89% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| New York City FC 2–3 Philadelphia Union | 2.25–2.39 | 38% · 19% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Chicago Fire 2–1 Portland Timbers | 1.48–1.06 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Austin 1–2 FC Dallas | 0.62–1.49 | 15% · 26% · 58% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Seattle Sounders 0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.68–2.06 | 11% · 19% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.