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15 of 15 matches with xG: 45 goals from 43.9 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union 2–2 Inter Miami | 2.59–1.48 | 61% · 18% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Philadelphia Union had 61% |
| FC Cincinnati 2–1 New York City FC | 1.19–1.67 | 27% · 24% · 49% | Won against the xG: FC Cincinnati |
| Columbus Crew 1–2 CF Montreal | 0.30–1.16 | 10% · 32% · 58% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SC | 1.63–1.34 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Close call, Nashville SC won |
| Orlando City SC 1–2 Chicago Fire | 1.77–1.30 | 48% · 23% · 28% | Won against the xG: Chicago Fire |
| Toronto FC 3–3 Charlotte | 1.90–1.35 | 50% · 22% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Toronto FC had 50% |
| DC United 0–3 New England Revolution | 1.56–2.97 | 18% · 16% · 66% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.30–0.52 | 56% · 29% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Sporting Kansas City had 56% |
| Minnesota United FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC | 2.11–0.95 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Won against the xG: Atlanta United FC |
| Colorado Rapids 1–0 LAFC | 2.21–0.41 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| Seattle Sounders 1–2 Austin | 1.23–1.12 | 39% · 28% · 33% | Close call, Austin won |
| Real Salt Lake 3–4 FC Dallas | 1.45–1.54 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| LA Galaxy 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.35–2.36 | 21% · 19% · 60% | Won against the xG: LA Galaxy |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 0–1 Houston Dynamo | 1.42–0.66 | 55% · 27% · 17% | Won against the xG: Houston Dynamo |
| Portland Timbers 3–1 San Diego | 1.50–1.57 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Close call, Portland Timbers won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.