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15 of 15 matches with xG: 49 goals from 39.4 xG (1.24 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami 1–2 Toronto FC | 1.83–0.51 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Won against the xG: Toronto FC |
| FC Cincinnati 1–1 Seattle Sounders | 1.38–1.38 | 37% · 25% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| CF Montreal 2–2 LA Galaxy | 1.81–1.22 | 51% · 23% · 26% | Draw against the xG: CF Montreal had 51% |
| New York Red Bulls 1–1 Chicago Fire | 0.60–0.89 | 23% · 36% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Orlando City SC 2–1 Real Salt Lake | 1.65–0.52 | 65% · 24% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| Charlotte 3–1 DC United | 1.81–1.27 | 50% · 23% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Nashville SC 3–2 Columbus Crew | 0.67–0.30 | 40% · 46% · 15% | Close call, Nashville SC won |
| St. Louis City SC 2–1 Houston Dynamo | 1.65–1.66 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Close call, St. Louis City SC won |
| Austin 1–1 Philadelphia Union | 1.60–1.05 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Austin had 50% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 5–0 FC Dallas | 1.37–0.59 | 56% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| LAFC 1–1 Portland Timbers | 2.30–0.89 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 69% |
| San Diego 3–0 Colorado Rapids | 1.33–0.47 | 58% · 29% · 13% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FC | 1.84–2.00 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FC | 2.91–1.47 | 67% · 16% · 17% | Draw against the xG: New England Revolution had 67% |
| Atlanta United FC 2–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.80–0.64 | 65% · 22% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.