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14 of 15 matches with xG: 45 goals from 40.3 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders 2–2 Chicago Fire | 0.87–2.02 | 15% · 21% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Chicago Fire had 64% |
| Inter Miami 7–1 CF Montreal | 3.04–0.92 | 80% · 12% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| DC United 0–0 LAFC | 1.23–1.80 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 51% |
| New York Red Bulls 1–3 Philadelphia Union | 2.05–2.53 | 32% · 19% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FC | 0.76–0.39 | 41% · 42% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlanta United FC 0–2 Charlotte | 0.86–1.59 | 20% · 25% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Nashville SC 4–0 FC Cincinnati | 1.80–1.93 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Close call, Nashville SC won |
| Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.38–2.97 | 3% · 9% · 89% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Houston Dynamo 0–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 0.70–1.33 | 20% · 29% · 52% | Draw against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes had 52% |
| Colorado Rapids 1–0 Real Salt Lake | 1.59–0.14 | 75% · 22% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| San Diego 3–1 LA Galaxy | 2.76–0.84 | 77% · 14% · 9% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| Portland Timbers 1–2 Austin | 2.03–1.18 | 57% · 21% · 22% | Won against the xG: Austin |
| Columbus Crew 1–3 New England Revolution | 0.44–1.35 | 12% · 28% · 60% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| St. Louis City SC 3–3 FC Dallas | 1.85–0.98 | 58% · 23% · 20% | Draw against the xG: St. Louis City SC had 58% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.