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14 of 15 matches with xG: 46 goals from 41.4 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 2–3 Orlando City SC | 0.99–2.63 | 12% · 16% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SC | 1.76–0.91 | 57% · 23% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Toronto FC |
| CF Montreal 1–2 Charlotte | 1.29–1.31 | 36% · 26% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC Cincinnati | 3.57–0.02 | 97% · 3% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| New York City FC 1–2 New England Revolution | 1.13–2.38 | 17% · 18% · 65% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Chicago Fire 1–1 Inter Miami | 1.17–1.58 | 28% · 25% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Minnesota United FC 1–2 FC Dallas | 1.04–2.31 | 16% · 19% · 66% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Austin 1–1 Colorado Rapids | 0.92–0.66 | 40% · 35% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Houston Dynamo 2–1 Real Salt Lake | 1.03–1.21 | 31% · 29% · 40% | Close call, Houston Dynamo won |
| LAFC 2–0 New York Red Bulls | 1.44–0.43 | 63% · 27% · 11% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 LA Galaxy | 2.37–0.66 | 76% · 16% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| San Diego 2–3 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.94–2.16 | 36% · 20% · 44% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis City SC | 0.92–1.86 | 18% · 22% · 59% | Draw against the xG: St. Louis City SC had 59% |
| Seattle Sounders 2–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.70–2.05 | 32% · 21% · 46% | Close call, Seattle Sounders won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.