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15 of 15 matches with xG: 44 goals from 51.6 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami 2–2 Nashville SC | 1.62–2.41 | 25% · 19% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Nashville SC had 55% |
| Columbus Crew 0–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.47–1.43 | 39% · 25% · 37% | Close call, New York Red Bulls won |
| FC Cincinnati 3–3 Charlotte | 2.44–1.59 | 56% · 19% · 25% | Draw against the xG: FC Cincinnati had 56% |
| Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FC | 2.05–2.51 | 32% · 19% · 49% | Close call, Orlando City SC won |
| DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FC | 0.21–1.42 | 5% · 26% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Atlanta United FC had 69% |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–1 LAFC | 1.95–2.19 | 35% · 20% · 44% | Close call, Sporting Kansas City won |
| FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers | 1.20–1.25 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Close call, FC Dallas won |
| St. Louis City SC 4–2 Minnesota United FC | 2.85–1.75 | 61% · 17% · 22% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Real Salt Lake 0–2 New York City FC | 1.09–0.51 | 50% · 33% · 17% | Won against the xG: New York City FC |
| Colorado Rapids 1–0 CF Montreal | 2.07–0.73 | 69% · 19% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| LA Galaxy 1–1 Seattle Sounders | 2.48–2.20 | 46% · 19% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo | 1.38–1.02 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Chicago Fire 1–2 New England Revolution | 1.92–1.53 | 47% · 22% · 31% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Austin | 3.33–1.05 | 81% · 11% · 8% | Won against the xG: Austin |
| San Diego 0–5 Philadelphia Union | 1.21–2.75 | 14% · 16% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.